There are many parallels between professional baseball and investment management. Like a player at bat, an investment manager must understand the context he or she faces, know his/her strengths and limitations, and adjust to the situation to improve the odds of success.   So, like a good player at bat, we’re adjusting our stance in fixed income due to the changing circumstances in the credit markets. Read the rest of this entry »

   Nick Sargen, Tim Policinski, and Dan Carter discuss managing bonds in a low interest rate world.

On August 17, I appeared on the FOX Business Network to discuss my current view on the economy and the markets. See My Video here.

As I have been sharing on my BLOG for some time now, we have a cautious view on the markets.  There is a valuation conundrum between equities and fixed income, and tactical investment strategies are difficult to make with meaningful conviction in this environment.   

A lot of investors have asked me to provide for a reasonable framework for navigating the current fixed income markets. To that end, later this week, I will publish detailed thoughts on that topic.  Stay tuned for that white paper.

Amid the gyrations in the economy and financial markets this year, the biggest surprise for us is the level of U.S. treasury yields.  After rising in the first part of this year, yields have plummeted in the past four months, and the front end of the curve is now below levels reached in December 2008, when the financial system appeared on the brink of collapse (see table.) Read the rest of this entry »

August 9, I appeared on Bloomberg TV’s Street Smart news program to discuss recent economic and market developments.  See Video.

Sitting on the veranda of the Mount Washington Resort in New Hampshire, one can’t help but admire the natural beauty of the surroundings and the mountain’s peak that is known for its wind gusts and erratic weather. At the base, conditions are tranquil, and the restored hotel retains its former grandeur. But what makes Bretton Woods famous is the conference held there in July 1-22, 1944, when representatives from 44 countries convened to create a new international monetary system that lasted until the early 1970s. Read the rest of this entry »

Once upon a time there was a World Cup Soccer tournament in which bookies and bank economists competed to see who would forecast the outcomes the best.  Much to everyone’s surprise a new entrant – an octopus from Germany named Paul – was the hands down winner.   Read the rest of this entry »

I appeared on Bloomberg on July 27th to share my thoughts on the U.S. stock market and economy.

Amid the plunge in the stock market and treasury yields in recent weeks, it’s clear there has been a big shift in investor expectations. The key issue is whether the shift is based on fundamentals or emotions. I think it’s a bit of both… Read the rest of this entry »

Thinking about the unique qualities of our country over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, I could not keep myself from considering the social and economic implications of current deficit spending by the US government.  Frankly, I am not immediately concerned about the current size of the budget deficit per se, considering that the economy is emerging from its worst slump since the Great Depression. However, Read the rest of this entry »